2014年1月7日 星期二

Concerning cognition and the market

Again and again, people on the market are finding things to worry about, as if they know how bad the picture will be. Peter Lynch once said there will always be things to worry about. And that is true. A thing is worrying not in itself or by itself, but out of our choice to worry about it.


Primordial fear of losing something leads us to question everything without a sound basis for doubt.

People tell themselves how to act when fears come true, and with each confine getting narrower, they become more of a animal of patterns. In the end, they end up becoming a lab rat that is stringently conditioned. A big sell-off then occurs.

Talking about cognition on the market, there's a certain range in a given time when we are in a relatively stable state, in which every causations and consequences seem to have their reasonable structures and determinations. We are endlessly interpreting and creating the world around us. 

And this interpretation is necessarily not a pure reflection of the reality, since the latter is constantly evolving, being determined by human behavior and other factors beyond our knowledge. Georg Soros was brilliant to have confirmed this necessity, though it has been studied and pondered upon for centuries and got a breakthrough by the mid 19th century.

But so what? The financial market doesn't know this. They can't even begin to discern between the world and our interpretations of it. Some of the participants even see trend in prices as a repeating history by itself.

One in a while, people paint a picture that is very close to reality(if by very narrow and limited determinations), but they don't necessarily realize it. Other times, outer world and cognition are so inconsistent that inputs and outputs are out of control. Only a stormy appreciation or depreciation would then paint them a clearer picture.

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